Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 181.441913 213.319770 250.681712 298.102154 357.253257 429.358960 5.250772e+02
2025-11-09 138.108619 175.375813 223.598177 291.870980 388.222296 522.818111 7.315899e+02
2025-11-16 112.500028 150.789753 203.966402 285.611433 412.364502 610.058022 9.603829e+02
2025-11-23 95.119703 132.838500 188.156819 278.727674 430.752184 691.137249 1.210733e+03
2025-11-30 88.418624 128.499450 190.515560 298.841889 495.994983 869.414658 1.721263e+03
2025-12-07 79.824916 119.633946 183.859211 301.993361 531.747292 1005.679612 2.223480e+03
2025-12-14 73.607366 113.457330 180.274471 309.289533 576.744092 1177.184016 2.922979e+03
2025-12-21 67.276411 106.135795 173.420833 308.803518 605.431552 1323.640706 3.667089e+03
2025-12-28 64.964614 105.282736 177.764723 330.919574 689.823542 1645.082349 5.272750e+03
2026-01-04 62.184380 103.185384 179.387881 347.667799 767.256077 1989.561887 7.399564e+03
2026-01-11 59.279390 100.463933 179.336511 360.693592 839.913639 2363.162514 1.024813e+04
2026-01-18 56.119002 96.870846 176.991384 367.953249 899.821397 2733.996261 1.381964e+04
2026-01-25 52.576581 92.313340 172.374593 369.778772 948.154672 3110.481607 1.848779e+04
2026-02-01 48.593192 86.484046 164.339064 361.655735 964.423270 3377.421923 2.322734e+04
2026-02-08 45.062675 81.207303 156.834023 353.489003 978.477369 3652.126662 2.918141e+04
2026-02-15 41.870804 76.306701 149.549103 344.516725 987.223419 3914.857232 3.635219e+04
2026-02-22 41.354990 76.883055 154.693527 370.779003 1132.740332 5044.135086 6.393612e+04
2026-03-01 39.455597 74.333446 152.236784 374.904904 1197.696323 5801.197233 9.421636e+04
2026-03-08 38.024233 72.651035 151.627870 384.468131 1290.057503 6874.987586 1.520010e+05
2026-03-15 36.161516 69.847323 147.936704 383.830623 1339.583407 7726.267099 2.261474e+05
2026-03-22 35.897520 70.580277 153.157112 412.909536 1540.918176 10225.072320 5.278144e+05
2026-03-29 35.256342 70.388027 155.992693 435.021979 1724.802885 13075.865718 1.290017e+06
2026-04-05 34.412942 69.643142 157.280496 452.272323 1896.781437 16366.573573 3.504449e+06